?Misfits Premier enter the European Masters Spring playoffs as the winners of Group B, having won all but one of six fixtures. BT Excel, on the other side, finished the group stage with a respectable 3-3 record.

We weren’t too excited about BT Excel heading into this tournament, but after their win against Schalke 04 Evolution, you have to show them some respect. That said, they haven’t really shown anything outside of that, with their other two wins coming against the lowly Cream Real Betis.

Misfits Premier have been very successful at the European Masters since its inception, and it doesn’t seem like that will change this year. While we trust Misfits to advance here, we wouldn’t bet on them in the head-to-head market.

BT Excel have been performing well enough for us to believe they can do some damage. They have experienced players who know how to perform under pressure, which should make what seems an otherwise fairly lopsided affair a bit closer.

?It doesn’t happen too often, but every once in a while, the European Masters serves us with a clash between two regional rivals. And that’s exactly what we’re getting on Wednesday when Prime League (PL) Spring 2021 champions BIG take on PL runners-up mousesports.

Since February 2021, BIG and mousesports have clashed three times. The first two bouts ended in favour of mouz, but they underperformed when it mattered and lost 1-3 in the PL Spring grand finals.

Regardless of that loss, mouz have proven time and time again that they can defeat BIG, so it doesn’t make much sense to have them priced as +142 underdogs. Adam “LIDER” Ilyasov and co. had a few shaky showings in the previous stage of the tournament, but they weren’t exactly in the easiest group.

We expect a close affair that could swing either way. Over 2.5 maps is the best option in our book, but we wouldn’t shy away from placing a few bucks on mouz to win 2-1 at +355 as well.

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?Stylistically these teams are very similar, as they both boast a fairly high average kill count and like to prioritise early drakes – each averaging over two per game. They’re both also relatively strong in the early-game, but it’s AGO Rogue who are more efficient in snowballing their leads into the mid/late-game.

Like AGO Rogue, Misfits Premier rely on their mid laner and ADC to do most of the heavy lifting. Since both of their key players are some of the best in their respective role, this match should prove to be a proper quality check for both sides. Misfits look slightly stronger since they field three players with previous LoL European Championship (LEC) experience, but we can’t ignore AGO Rogue’s ability to develop world-class talent.

AGO seem a bit overpriced in the head-to-head market, especially with the way they’ve been playing of late. Although they have lost a few key players during the offseason, the Rogue academy side still has the tools to defeat anyone and defend its European Masters title.

?Comparing teams from different regions is a difficult task since it is not fair to value equally each side’s results in their respective domestic competitions. Statistically, ?AIM SE SuppUp are the more efficient team in almost all metrics, and by a large margin, but they’re one of the weakest teams at the tournament in terms of individual talent.

SSU are very aggressive in the early-game with the highest first-X rates for six out of seven objectives: Turret (85.1%), Rift Herald (76.1%), Dragon (66.6%), Dragon Soul (87.50%), Baron (78.95%), and Elder Drake (100%). They are also extremely effective in gaining pre-15 gold leads (80.95%), which increase four-fold by the 20-minute mark.

With those stats, SSU should prove to be a tough stylistic opponent for G2 Arctic, who aren’t very efficient in gaining gold advantages; however, that’s where the individual quality tips the scale. We don’t expect SSU to win, but there is good value in the first blood market.

SSU claim first blood in 61.8% of their games, whereas G2 manage the same in only 37.93% of their bouts. G2 might have the stronger squad, but that won’t save them from SSU’s early aggression.

?Mousesports are the strongest team of Group C, whereas Illuminar Gaming are not even expected to finish inside the top two. The gap between these two sides is clear as mouz field some of the best players in the tournament, including Adam “LIDER” Ilyasov, who is widely regarded as one of the best European mid laners that have yet to get their chance in the LEC.

What makes this match very one-sided is not only the quality gap, but also Illuminar’s weak early game. While mousesports average the highest GD@10 (+929.54) and GD@10 (+1685.46) numbers in Group C, Illuminar’s marks (-36.78 GD@10, +381.42 GD@15) are some of the lowest.

Illuminar have done well enough to secure their spot at the European Masters, but they’re clearly not cut out to challenge mousesports. Look for mousesports to cover the kill line with ease.

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?BT Excel emerged as the strongest team in the 2021 Northern LoL Championship (NLC), largely due to their incredible early-game power. The British esports organisation have averaged +3704 GD@15 and 1985 GPM, which are some of the highest marks at EUM.

Karmine Corp did well enough in their domestic league last split, but their early-game numbers (+1378 GD@15, +1887 GPM) were not nearly as impressive as BT’s. That said, the French side have proven to be far more effective in the mid/late-game with a rating of 7.6 compared to BT’s 6.6.

This game can go either way depending on which side manages to play around their strengths. Although Karmine Corp should be favoured if it goes deep into the late-game, BT’s early-game numbers are way too good for us to believe the French side will have a chance to show their prowess at the death.

?Even though Schalke 04 Evolution boast a +1383 GD@15, we have to note that their domestic league is very top-heavy, so that number is a bit misleading. Regardless, the Germans’ early-game rating of 64.6 is still much higher than Cream Real Betis’ 41.1 – the worst out of all teams at the European Masters.

Even though we don’t expect S04 to win the trophy, their early-game numbers are good enough for us to believe they can defeat Betis on Wednesday – even though their mid/late-game rating of -14.6 is significantly lower than the Spanish side’s 16.8.

For S04 to win this bout, they need to speed up the match and close it out before the 30-minute mark, at which point Betis should enter their comfort zone. Mario “Motroco” Martinez’s side might put up a fight, but it’s hard to trust a bad early-game team in the current meta.

?AGO Rogue are the most well-rounded team at the tournament, so we can’t argue with LoL esports bookmakers who have priced them as big favourites over G2 Arctic.

The reigning European Masters champions hail from a stronger region and also have an edge over G2 in both the early- and late-game stats. Rogue boast a 74 early-game rating and an 11.7 mid/late-game rating, whereas G2 are one of the weakest early-game teams (59.2) and aren’t exactly impressive in the mid/late-game (7.5) either.

The betting odds on AGO Rogue are not exactly high, but there is a good reason for that. Even at -181.82, AGO Rogue are a good bet against the SuperLiga’s third seed.

?The latest LoL betting odds on this match make a lot of sense, as ?AIM SE SuppUp come from a much weaker region. That said, there is a world where the Serbian squad can surprise Misfits Premier, solely due to their aggression.

SSU are the second-best rated early-game team (80.4) at the tournament, with some of the highest first blood (64%) and first tower (86%) rates. Misfits Premier, meanwhile, have one of the worst pre-15 minutes records in the league (58.9), but they tend to come online in the mid/late-game with a 9.5 rating.

Those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt since Misfits have had to play much stronger opponents throughout the season, whereas SSU were never properly tested in the Esports Balkan League (EBL). While we expect Misfits to secure a comfortable win and potentially fight for the European Masters title, there is some value in backing the underdogs to reach five kills first.

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