AGO ROGUE vs LDLC OL LoL BETTING & MATCH DETAILS

This Tuesday, AGO Rogue will meet LDLC OL in the first semi-final of LoL European Masters Spring 2022. There is a clear divide in the match markets, but have the top League of Legends betting sites got it right?

?LDLC OL performed well in the first round of the European Masters 2022 Spring playoffs, where they defeated X7 Esports 3-0 while needing less than 25 minutes to close out games one and three. AGO ROGUE were just as successful in their quarter-final, but they won against Bifrost (3-0), who are weaker than X7.

Comparing the two teams talent-wise, you could argue that LDLC look stronger. They won the French regional league, so they must be good, and LDLC have done well so far in this tournament.

Most notably, LDLC’s jungler Martin “Yike” Sundelin is playing well, as is mid laner Jérémy “Eika” Valdenaire, but while Eika is LDLC’s top player, his champion pool is rather poor compared to Ardian “Nite” Spahiu, who has played eight unique champions.

Moreover, as a team, AGO ROGUE have been far more flexible with their drafts and shown that they can play unconventional compositions, which could give them an edge. But for some reason, the esports betting sites have failed to recognise AGO ROGUE’s strengths and have priced them as +450 underdogs.

Admittedly, LDLC have produced much cleaner games and seem to be stronger on paper. But at +170 to cover the map line, AGO ROGUE offer far more value.

?More esports betting tips

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?Movistar Riders won against PENTA 1860 in their opening match of European Masters 2021 Summer on Tuesday, when they needed just north of 30 minutes to secure their first win with 21-11 in kills and a 10.4k gold lead. The result wasn’t surprising, not necessarily because PENTA 1860 are a bad team, but rather because Movistar Riders are that much stronger.

Movistar Riders looked good during the regular split, but they fell flat in the playoffs and lost to Vodafone Giants, which was quite a surprise considering their dominance throughout the summer season. Movistar Riders averaged 23.8 kills per win, 1943 Gold Per Minute (GPM), and +1783 Gold Difference at 15 minutes (GD@15), which are very impressive stats for a major region.

It’s still early to say, but Movistar Riders look like the strongest team in Group B. We have seen them play only one game so far, but if their regular-season stats are any indication, they shouldn’t struggle against PDW.

?Tricked Esports got stomped by PDW on Tuesday in a game that looked like it was going their way at the start. However, a couple of individual mistakes and poor team fighting eventually led to a humiliating loss.

One result doesn’t tell us a lot about Tricked and how good they are. However, it’s difficult to defend their players’ individual performances, and it’s even more challenging to explain how Tricked managed to lose against an all-AP team.

On a more positive note, their bottom lane duo played well, but it’s hard to do much if your other two lanes go 0/5/0 and 0/4/0. PENTA 1860 suffered a similar fate against Movistar Riders on Tuesday, although they put up a good fight against a much stronger opponent.

Tricked Esports and PENTA 1860 are very similar in their style; they struggle early and come online in the mid-late game. That should result in an exciting affair that could go down to the wire. With that, we have to take the better LoL betting odds on PENTA 1860, who have shown more cohesion and better teamwork than Tricked.

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AGO Rogue enter this match as betting favourites, which makes sense, considering they are one of the top picks to win the tournament. However, we believe that the odds are still a bit high considering how much better the Poles are.

UCAM Esports Club’s performance metrics are one of the lowest in Group A, with 16.6 kills per win (KPW), 19.3 deaths per loss (DPL), +1766 Gold Per Minute (GPM) and only +147 Gold Difference at 15 minutes (GD@15). Their Early Game Rating (EGR) is 48.5, while UCAM Esports Club’s Mid-Late Game Rating is at 7.1.

In comparison, AGO Rogue’s metrics show 18.2 KPW, 14 DPL, 1938 GPM, +3369 GD@15, 77 EGR, and 8.7 MLR. What’s more, AGO Rogue have much better First Blood Rate (57% – 44%), First Turret Rate (71% – 56%), and First Dragon Rate (50% – 22%).

Obviously, you can’t compare regular-season figures from two different leagues accurately; however, you can’t really say that Ultraliga is weaker than LVP SuperLiga. There is no reason for UCAM Esports Club to be priced so close to AGO Rogue. This is an easy bet on the Polish team.

PENTA 1860 will clash with PDW on Wednesday in what promises to be an exciting affair. The Germans might not average the most kills per win (19.5); however, they give up a lot in their losses (26.6 deaths), whereas PDW seem fairly stable with their KPW (17.2) and DPL (16.8) metrics.

Comparing the team’s performance metrics over the season, PENTA 1860 have averaged +1949 Gold Per Minute (GPM); however, only +2 Gold Difference at 15 minutes (GD@15) – that can be explained with their poor Early Game Rating (54 EGR). Still, PENTA 1860 usually do better in the late game, as evident in their Mid-Late Game Rating (19.3 MLR).

PDW’s metrics show +1818 GPM, +1207 GD@15, 58.9 EGR, and -1.7 MLR. In contrast to PENTA, PDW usually do well in the early game but fall flat in the mid-late game, which could present an interesting stylistic matchup, where both teams will have to improve in the weakest areas of their game.

The LoL betting odds for this match should be much closer to even money. Even though PENTA look stronger on paper, they haven’t produced that many quality wins over the season. PDW are not perfect either and can be hit-or-miss at times, but they’re a team that can cause upsets and are a good bet as an underdog.

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?Misfits Premier enter the European Masters Spring playoffs as the winners of Group B, having won all but one of six fixtures. BT Excel, on the other side, finished the group stage with a respectable 3-3 record.

We weren’t too excited about BT Excel heading into this tournament, but after their win against Schalke 04 Evolution, you have to show them some respect. That said, they haven’t really shown anything outside of that, with their other two wins coming against the lowly Cream Real Betis.

Misfits Premier have been very successful at the European Masters since its inception, and it doesn’t seem like that will change this year. While we trust Misfits to advance here, we wouldn’t bet on them in the head-to-head market.

BT Excel have been performing well enough for us to believe they can do some damage. They have experienced players who know how to perform under pressure, which should make what seems an otherwise fairly lopsided affair a bit closer.

?It doesn’t happen too often, but every once in a while, the European Masters serves us with a clash between two regional rivals. And that’s exactly what we’re getting on Wednesday when Prime League (PL) Spring 2021 champions BIG take on PL runners-up mousesports.

Since February 2021, BIG and mousesports have clashed three times. The first two bouts ended in favour of mouz, but they underperformed when it mattered and lost 1-3 in the PL Spring grand finals.

Regardless of that loss, mouz have proven time and time again that they can defeat BIG, so it doesn’t make much sense to have them priced as +142 underdogs. Adam “LIDER” Ilyasov and co. had a few shaky showings in the previous stage of the tournament, but they weren’t exactly in the easiest group.

We expect a close affair that could swing either way. Over 2.5 maps is the best option in our book, but we wouldn’t shy away from placing a few bucks on mouz to win 2-1 at +355 as well.

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?BIG enter the final round of the LoL European Masters group stage with a perfect 3-0 record. Their last fixture of the tournament happened on Saturday, when they defeated Anorthosis Esports in under 30 minutes.

That bout was pretty straightforward, but it wasn’t like BIG were that much better than their opposition. The Germans won solely due to the performance of ADC Tim “Keduii” Willers, who recorded an 8.00 KDA with a 13/2/3 score (56% of his team total kills).

Besides the mid lane, which went even, BIG finished behind in all other positions in that clash, so it doesn’t make sense to see Anorthosis Esports priced as rank outsiders. It’s not like BIG are a bad team, but they are severely overrated at this price.

The value is with Anorthosis. You might also want to take the underdogs to secure first blood at +131, as they have done so in 66.7% of games at this tournament compared to BIG’s 0% return.

K1CK eSports Club have yet to win a single match this tournament. That needs to change quickly if the Poles want to emulate their run at the European Masters Summer edition, where they reached the quarter-finals.

Mkers, meanwhile, have outperformed everyone’s expectations. They enter the final day of the group stage with a 2-1 record thanks to wins against Anorthosis Esports and K1CK, and boast the fourth-highest team KDA (1.60) of the tournament.

Mkers are better than K1CK in almost all team metrics, most notably in the early-game stats (+2640 vs -1223 GD@15). K1CK usually come online in mid/late-game, but if their performance against the Italians last time out is any indication, the Ultraliga Season 5 runners-up will struggle to come back from an early deficit.

?There isn’t much else to be said about these two teams. Anorthosis Esports are very efficient in the early game, while K1CK eSports Club are not, and that was the main reason why Anorthosis won their previous meeting.

Although it may seem that match was close since Anorthosis Esports won with only six kills to spare, the Cypriot squad walked away with a gold lead of almost 10k. K1CK showed some resistance, taking two drakes and a Herald, but that’s nothing to Anorthosis’ four drakes, one Herald and two Barons.

K1CK’s main carry, ADC ?ukasz “Puki style” Zygmunciak, failed to deliver that day, but that’s hardly an excuse for the team’s shaky performance. Anorthosis Esports might have weaker individual pieces, but they at least know how to play around their strengths.

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?Stylistically these teams are very similar, as they both boast a fairly high average kill count and like to prioritise early drakes – each averaging over two per game. They’re both also relatively strong in the early-game, but it’s AGO Rogue who are more efficient in snowballing their leads into the mid/late-game.

Like AGO Rogue, Misfits Premier rely on their mid laner and ADC to do most of the heavy lifting. Since both of their key players are some of the best in their respective role, this match should prove to be a proper quality check for both sides. Misfits look slightly stronger since they field three players with previous LoL European Championship (LEC) experience, but we can’t ignore AGO Rogue’s ability to develop world-class talent.

AGO seem a bit overpriced in the head-to-head market, especially with the way they’ve been playing of late. Although they have lost a few key players during the offseason, the Rogue academy side still has the tools to defeat anyone and defend its European Masters title.

?Comparing teams from different regions is a difficult task since it is not fair to value equally each side’s results in their respective domestic competitions. Statistically, ?AIM SE SuppUp are the more efficient team in almost all metrics, and by a large margin, but they’re one of the weakest teams at the tournament in terms of individual talent.

SSU are very aggressive in the early-game with the highest first-X rates for six out of seven objectives: Turret (85.1%), Rift Herald (76.1%), Dragon (66.6%), Dragon Soul (87.50%), Baron (78.95%), and Elder Drake (100%). They are also extremely effective in gaining pre-15 gold leads (80.95%), which increase four-fold by the 20-minute mark.

With those stats, SSU should prove to be a tough stylistic opponent for G2 Arctic, who aren’t very efficient in gaining gold advantages; however, that’s where the individual quality tips the scale. We don’t expect SSU to win, but there is good value in the first blood market.

SSU claim first blood in 61.8% of their games, whereas G2 manage the same in only 37.93% of their bouts. G2 might have the stronger squad, but that won’t save them from SSU’s early aggression.

?Mousesports are the strongest team of Group C, whereas Illuminar Gaming are not even expected to finish inside the top two. The gap between these two sides is clear as mouz field some of the best players in the tournament, including Adam “LIDER” Ilyasov, who is widely regarded as one of the best European mid laners that have yet to get their chance in the LEC.

What makes this match very one-sided is not only the quality gap, but also Illuminar’s weak early game. While mousesports average the highest GD@10 (+929.54) and GD@10 (+1685.46) numbers in Group C, Illuminar’s marks (-36.78 GD@10, +381.42 GD@15) are some of the lowest.

Illuminar have done well enough to secure their spot at the European Masters, but they’re clearly not cut out to challenge mousesports. Look for mousesports to cover the kill line with ease.

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?BT Excel emerged as the strongest team in the 2021 Northern LoL Championship (NLC), largely due to their incredible early-game power. The British esports organisation have averaged +3704 GD@15 and 1985 GPM, which are some of the highest marks at EUM.

Karmine Corp did well enough in their domestic league last split, but their early-game numbers (+1378 GD@15, +1887 GPM) were not nearly as impressive as BT’s. That said, the French side have proven to be far more effective in the mid/late-game with a rating of 7.6 compared to BT’s 6.6.

This game can go either way depending on which side manages to play around their strengths. Although Karmine Corp should be favoured if it goes deep into the late-game, BT’s early-game numbers are way too good for us to believe the French side will have a chance to show their prowess at the death.

?Even though Schalke 04 Evolution boast a +1383 GD@15, we have to note that their domestic league is very top-heavy, so that number is a bit misleading. Regardless, the Germans’ early-game rating of 64.6 is still much higher than Cream Real Betis’ 41.1 – the worst out of all teams at the European Masters.

Even though we don’t expect S04 to win the trophy, their early-game numbers are good enough for us to believe they can defeat Betis on Wednesday – even though their mid/late-game rating of -14.6 is significantly lower than the Spanish side’s 16.8.

For S04 to win this bout, they need to speed up the match and close it out before the 30-minute mark, at which point Betis should enter their comfort zone. Mario “Motroco” Martinez’s side might put up a fight, but it’s hard to trust a bad early-game team in the current meta.

?AGO Rogue are the most well-rounded team at the tournament, so we can’t argue with LoL esports bookmakers who have priced them as big favourites over G2 Arctic.

The reigning European Masters champions hail from a stronger region and also have an edge over G2 in both the early- and late-game stats. Rogue boast a 74 early-game rating and an 11.7 mid/late-game rating, whereas G2 are one of the weakest early-game teams (59.2) and aren’t exactly impressive in the mid/late-game (7.5) either.

The betting odds on AGO Rogue are not exactly high, but there is a good reason for that. Even at -181.82, AGO Rogue are a good bet against the SuperLiga’s third seed.

?The latest LoL betting odds on this match make a lot of sense, as ?AIM SE SuppUp come from a much weaker region. That said, there is a world where the Serbian squad can surprise Misfits Premier, solely due to their aggression.

SSU are the second-best rated early-game team (80.4) at the tournament, with some of the highest first blood (64%) and first tower (86%) rates. Misfits Premier, meanwhile, have one of the worst pre-15 minutes records in the league (58.9), but they tend to come online in the mid/late-game with a 9.5 rating.

Those numbers should be taken with a grain of salt since Misfits have had to play much stronger opponents throughout the season, whereas SSU were never properly tested in the Esports Balkan League (EBL). While we expect Misfits to secure a comfortable win and potentially fight for the European Masters title, there is some value in backing the underdogs to reach five kills first.

The post European Masters 2021 betting predictions – Thursday, April 15 appeared first on Esport Bet.

But there is still two matches to be played in the round of 16, our LoL EU expert Kosta takes a look at how they will pan out and gives his predictions.

EXCEL ESPORTS (2nd in group C) vs. TEAM ATLANTIS ( 3rd in group B)

The British champions exceL face Sweden’s Atlantis in a match of explosive and more composed playstyles. Atlantis are decent at holding their own, but exceL’s early game helped them demolish KlikTech (twice) and EURONICS. With only one win against probably the weakest team in group stage, Atlantis probably won’t have all the answers to exceL’s aggression and get through to the quarter finals.

Best bet: Excel Esports to win, paying -303.03 at BetOnline.

MOVISTAR RIDERS (2nd in group D) vs ILLUMINAR GAMING (3rd in group A)
Well, yeah… this one is not looking favourable for Illuminar. The all-Polish squad has been looking shaky both prior to Masters and in the tournament itself, while Movistar, while not brilliant, have been good at dispatching lower-level teams. The pure strength of the Spanish-Swedish team gives them an edge over Illuminar, and if they keep their top laner out of trouble, it should be a comfortable victory for the Riders.

Best bet: Movistar Riders to win 2-0 in maps betting, paying -163.93 at BetOnline

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